文章：

匈牙利女性乳腺癌死亡率二十年：自加入欧盟以来的流行病学趋势

Two Decades of Female Breast Cancer Mortality in Hungary: Epidemiological Trends Since EU Accession

原文发布日期：18 December 2025

DOI: 10.3390/cancers17244034

类型: Article

开放获取: 是

英文摘要：

Objective: This study aimed to investigate annual and seasonal trends, as well as regional differences, in female breast cancer mortality in Hungary between 2004 and 2023. Methods: Data on cancer mortality were obtained from the publicly available nationwide population register. Poisson and quasi-Poisson regression models were applied to investigate the annual trend in breast cancer mortality rates. Cyclic trends in mortality were analysed using the Walter–Elwood method, and regional differences in age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) were evaluated across Hungarian regions. Results: Over the two decades studied, a total of 42,779 deaths from breast cancer were recorded. A significant declining trend in annual ASMRs for female breast cancer was observed during the study period (IRR = 0.996; 95% CI [0.993–0.998];p= 0.002). Seasonal analysis revealed a significant cyclic pattern, with the highest number of deaths occurring during the winter months, peaking in December. The highest age-standardised breast cancer mortality rate (43.9 ± 0.2 per 100,000 female persons per year) was observed in the Capital region (Budapest), while the lowest ASMR (36.2 ± 0.25 per 100,000 female persons per year) was found in the Northern Great Plain region (p= 0.028). Conclusions: Although Hungary has implemented a free national breast cancer screening programme, this study demonstrates that breast cancer mortality remains high in the country. Additionally, breast cancer mortality exhibits significant regional and seasonal variation. These findings underscore the need for targeted public health interventions and optimised resource allocation to improve outcomes.

摘要翻译： 

目的：本研究旨在分析2004年至2023年间匈牙利女性乳腺癌死亡率的年度与季节性变化趋势及地区差异。方法：癌症死亡率数据来源于全国公开的人口登记系统。采用泊松回归与准泊松回归模型分析乳腺癌死亡率的年度变化趋势，运用Walter-Elwood方法检验死亡率的周期性季节特征，并通过年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）评估匈牙利各区域间的差异。结果：研究期间共记录42,779例乳腺癌死亡病例。女性乳腺癌年龄标准化死亡率呈现显著下降趋势（IRR=0.996；95% CI [0.993–0.998]；p=0.002）。季节性分析显示死亡率存在显著周期性波动，冬季死亡人数最高，其中12月达到峰值。首都布达佩斯大区的年龄标准化死亡率最高（43.9±0.2/10万女性/年），而北大平原地区最低（36.2±0.25/10万女性/年）（p=0.028）。结论：尽管匈牙利已实施全国性免费乳腺癌筛查计划，但本研究显示该国乳腺癌死亡率仍处于较高水平，且存在显著的区域与季节差异。这些发现提示需要采取针对性的公共卫生干预措施并优化资源配置以改善防治效果。

原文链接：

Two Decades of Female Breast Cancer Mortality in Hungary: Epidemiological Trends Since EU Accession