文章：

中国早发性胃肠道癌症的全国趋势与预测

Nationwide Trends and Projections of Early Onset Gastrointestinal Cancers in China

原文发布日期：9 September 2025

DOI: 10.3390/cancers17182954

类型: Article

开放获取: 是

英文摘要：

Early-onset (15–49 years) gastrointestinal cancers are an emerging public health concern in China, yet national trend analyses remain limited. Drawing on data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we evaluated nationwide trends in the incidence and mortality of early-onset gastrointestinal cancers (esophagus, stomach, liver, colon and rectum, gallbladder and biliary tract, and pancreas) in China from 1990 to 2021 and projected future patterns through 2040 using Bayesian age–period–cohort models. Between 1990 and 2021, age-standardized rates for esophageal, stomach, and liver cancers declined markedly while those for colorectal and biliary tract cancers increased, and pancreatic cancer rates rose modestly. Mortality for upper-GI cancers fell substantially, whereas colorectal cancer deaths rose modestly, with the age-standardized mortality rate declining despite rising incidence. Projections suggest continued declines in upper-GI cancers, further increases in colorectal and biliary tract cancers, and a peak in the age-standardized incidence rate of pancreatic cancer around 2030. These divergent trends highlight an urgent need for targeted prevention and early-detection strategies focused on colorectal, biliary, and pancreatic cancers among patients aged 15–49 years in China.

摘要翻译： 

早发型（15-49岁）胃肠道癌症在中国已成为日益严峻的公共卫生问题，但目前全国范围的趋势分析仍较为有限。基于2021年全球疾病负担研究数据，我们评估了1990年至2021年中国早发型胃肠道癌症（包括食管、胃、肝、结肠与直肠、胆囊及胆道、胰腺）的发病率和死亡率全国趋势，并运用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测了截至2040年的未来变化模式。1990年至2021年间，食管癌、胃癌和肝癌的年龄标准化发病率显著下降，而结直肠癌与胆道癌发病率上升，胰腺癌发病率略有增长。上消化道癌症死亡率大幅下降，结直肠癌死亡人数小幅增加，其年龄标准化死亡率在发病率上升的背景下仍呈下降趋势。预测模型显示，上消化道癌症将持续下降，结直肠癌与胆道癌将进一步增长，胰腺癌年龄标准化发病率预计在2030年左右达到峰值。这些分化趋势凸显出中国亟需针对15-49岁人群制定以结直肠癌、胆道癌和胰腺癌为重点的精准预防与早期筛查策略。

原文链接：

Nationwide Trends and Projections of Early Onset Gastrointestinal Cancers in China