文章：

利用诊断前CT扫描中主胰管特征预测长达10年后的胰腺导管腺癌发生

Predicting Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Occurrence Up to 10 Years in Advance Using Features of the Main Pancreatic Duct in Pre-Diagnostic CT Scans

原文发布日期：4 June 2025

DOI: 10.3390/cancers17111886

类型: Article

开放获取: 是

英文摘要：

Background/Objectives:Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) prediction in high-risk individuals is essential for early detection and improved outcome. While prior studies have utilized pancreatic radiomics for PDAC prediction, the added value of main pancreatic duct (MPD) features remains unclear. This study aims to assess the additional value of features of the main pancreatic duct (MPD) for predicting PDAC occurrence across different timeframes in advance.Methods: In total, 321 contrast-enhanced CT scans of the MPD and pancreas carried out across control, pre-diagnostic, and diagnostic cohorts were segmented, and radiomics were extracted. A support vector machine (SVM) classifier was used to classify the control and pre-diagnostic cohorts, with model performance assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs)Results: The MPD diameter and volume significantly increased from the control to the pre-diagnostic and diagnostic CT scans (p< 0.05). The addition of features of the MPD to the pancreas improved the PDAC prediction AUC from 0.83 to 0.96 for subjects 6 months to 3 years in advance, from 0.81 to 0.94 for 3–6 years in advance, and 0.75 to 0.84 for 6–10 years in advance of diagnosis. Additionally, integrating MPD radiomics with diameter and volume significantly improved the AUC from 0.81 to 0.88 for subjects 6 months to 3 years in advance.Conclusions: Radiomic features from abdominal CT scans allow PDAC prediction up to 10 years in advance. Integrating MPD features, including diameter and volume, significantly improves PDAC prediction compared to using radiomics of the pancreas alone.

摘要翻译： 

背景/目的：在高危人群中预测胰腺导管腺癌（PDAC）对于早期发现和改善预后至关重要。尽管先前研究已利用胰腺影像组学进行PDAC预测，但主胰管（MPD）特征的附加价值尚不明确。本研究旨在评估主胰管特征在不同时间跨度上对PDAC发生预测的增量价值。 方法：本研究共纳入对照组、诊断前组和诊断组的321例MPD及胰腺增强CT扫描图像进行分割并提取影像组学特征。采用支持向量机（SVM）分类器对对照组与诊断前组进行分类，通过受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下面积（AUC）评估模型性能。 结果：从对照组到诊断前组及诊断组CT扫描，MPD直径和体积均显著增加（p<0.05）。在胰腺特征基础上加入MPD特征后，PDAC预测AUC值在诊断前6个月至3年从0.83提升至0.96，诊断前3-6年从0.81提升至0.94，诊断前6-10年从0.75提升至0.84。此外，整合MPD影像组学特征与直径、体积数据，使诊断前6个月至3年受试者的AUC从0.81显著提升至0.88。 结论：腹部CT扫描的影像组学特征可实现最长提前10年的PDAC预测。相较于单独使用胰腺影像组学，整合包含直径和体积的MPD特征能显著提升PDAC预测效能。

原文链接：

Predicting Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Occurrence Up to 10 Years in Advance Using Features of the Main Pancreatic Duct in Pre-Diagnostic CT Scans