Background: Pancreatic cancer (PC), the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality globally, exhibits a persistently low five-year survival rate (13%). While the global burden of PC among individuals aged 15–59 years has declined, trends in China remain understudied. This study evaluates global and national trends in PC incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021 and projects trajectories to 2045. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we calculated age-standardized rates (ASRs) for 204 countries/territories. Joinpoint (version: 5.3.0.0) regression identified temporal trends via average annual percentage changes (AAPCs), and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling forecasted future burdens. Results: Globally, PC burden declined among 15–59-year-olds (AAPC for incidence: −0.8%, 95% UI: −1.2 to −0.4). However, China experienced a significant reversal after 2009, with incidence rising by 1.5% annually (95% UI: 0.9–2.1), disproportionately affecting males. Smoking (contributing to 22.2% of DALYs in China) and high fasting plasma glucose (15%) emerged as key modifiable risk factors, while elevated BMI exacerbated burdens in high SDI regions (3.1% of DALYs). Projections indicate a continued surge in China’s PC burden by 2045, particularly among males (incidence projected to increase by 50% from 2010 to 2045). Conclusions: High SDI regions exhibit concentrated PC burdens linked to lifestyle factors, whereas China’s rising trends align with healthcare expansion and metabolic disease proliferation. Targeted interventions—smoking cessation, glycemic control, and weight management—are imperative to mitigate growing burdens in younger populations. This study highlights the urgent need for region-specific strategies to address evolving epidemiological challenges in PC prevention and control.
肿瘤(癌症)患者之家