Aim: This study aims to elucidate the factors driving melanoma incidence trends in Spain by analyzing the GBD-2019 dataset (1990–2019) and investigating the age-specific, birth cohort, and period effects on incidence rates. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed melanoma incidence trends in Spain from 1990 to 2019 using an ecological design. Data were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 and Spain’s National Statistics Institute. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis, and age–period–cohort (A-P-C) modeling was employed to assess the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on incidence rates. Results: Between 1990 and 2019, an estimated 147,823 melanoma cases were diagnosed in Spain. The ASIRs showed a steady increase for both sexes, with slightly higher rates observed in men. Both men (average annual percentage change (AAPC): 2.8%) and women (AAPC: 2.4%) showed a steady increase in the ASIR over the period. Joinpoint analysis revealed distinct periods of incidence rate changes, with significant upward trends in earlier years followed by stabilization in recent years. Incidence rates increased steadily with age, with the highest rates in the 80–84 age group. Women tended to have slightly higher rates in younger age groups, while men had higher rates in older age groups. Both men and women experienced a steady increase in relative risk of melanoma throughout the 30-year study period, with significant upward trends across birth cohorts. Conclusions: Despite limitations, this study provides valuable insights into factors influencing melanoma incidence in Spain. By understanding age, period, and cohort effects, effective prevention strategies can be developed to reduce melanoma incidence.
目的：本研究旨在通过分析GBD-2019数据集（1990-2019年）并探讨年龄、出生队列及时期效应对发病率的影响，阐明西班牙黑色素瘤发病率变化趋势的驱动因素。材料与方法：本研究采用生态学设计，分析了1990年至2019年西班牙黑色素瘤的发病趋势。数据来源于2019年全球疾病负担研究和西班牙国家统计局。通过连接点回归分析计算年龄标准化发病率，并运用年龄-时期-队列模型评估年龄、时期和出生队列对发病率的影响。结果：1990年至2019年间，西班牙共诊断约147,823例黑色素瘤病例。男女年龄标准化发病率均呈稳步上升趋势，男性发病率略高。男性（年均百分比变化：2.8%）和女性（年均百分比变化：2.4%）在该时期的年龄标准化发病率均持续增长。连接点分析显示发病率变化存在明显阶段性特征，早期呈显著上升趋势，近年趋于稳定。发病率随年龄增长稳步上升，80-84岁年龄组发病率最高。年轻年龄组中女性发病率略高，而老年年龄组中男性发病率更高。在30年研究期间，男女黑色素瘤相对风险均持续上升，各出生队列均呈现显著增长趋势。结论：尽管存在局限性，本研究为理解西班牙黑色素瘤发病率的影响因素提供了重要见解。通过解析年龄、时期和队列效应，可制定有效的预防策略以降低黑色素瘤发病率。
Spain’s Rising Melanoma Threat: A Comprehensive 30-Year Analysis (1990–2019)
肿瘤(癌症)患者之家