文章：

韩国前列腺癌发病率的短期与长期预测：基于过去十年的社会老龄化趋势及前列腺特异性抗原检测率

The Short- and Long-Term Anticipation of Prostate Cancer Incidence in Korea: Based on Social Aging Trends and Prostate-Specific Antigen Testing Rate during the Last Decade

原文发布日期：24 January 2024

DOI: 10.3390/cancers16030503

类型: Article

开放获取: 是

英文摘要：

The current incidence of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, which plays a crucial role in detecting prostate cancer (PCa) in an aged population, is low in Korea. Reflecting these epidemiologic characteristics, we estimated the short- and long-term incidences of PCa. A regression equation model was extracted based on two critical pieces of information: (1) the distribution of newly detected PCa cases in each age group of the 50s, 60s, 70s, and over 80s from a recent period (2006–2020), and (2) the PSA testing rate (PSAr) from the previous decade (2006–2016) for each age subgroup. The incidence increased fourfold (4533 in 2006 to 16,815 in 2020), with each age subgroup accounting for 7.9% (50s), 31.4% (60s), 43.0% (70s), and 17.1% (over 80s) of cases in 2020. PSAr increased by an average of 1.08% annually. If these trends are maintained, 28,822 new cases will be diagnosed in 2030 (expected PSAr: 14.4%) and 40,478 cases in 2040 (expected PSAr: 26.4%). If a public PSA screening were implemented for men only in their 60s (assuming a PSAr of 60% in the 60s) and 70s (assuming a PSAr of 80% in the 70s) in 2030, 37,503 cases in 2030 (expected PSAr: 23.1%) and 43,719 cases in 2040 (expected PSAr: 29.9%) would be estimated. According to the projection, the incidence of PCa will increase twofold by 2034 compared to 2020. If national screening were only conducted in the 60s and 70s, a higher detection of almost threefold would be expected by 2040.

摘要翻译： 

当前韩国老年人群中前列腺特异性抗原（PSA）检测率较低，而该检测在前列腺癌筛查中具有关键作用。基于这一流行病学特征，本研究对前列腺癌的短期及长期发病率进行了预测。我们通过构建回归方程模型展开分析，该模型依据两项核心数据：(1) 近期（2006-2020年）新发前列腺癌病例在50-59岁、60-69岁、70-79岁及80岁以上各年龄段的分布情况；(2) 过去十年间（2006-2016年）各年龄亚组的PSA检测率。结果显示，前列腺癌发病率增长四倍（2006年4533例增至2020年16815例），2020年各年龄组占比分别为7.9%（50-59岁）、31.4%（60-69岁）、43.0%（70-79岁）及17.1%（80岁以上）。PSA检测率年均增长1.08%。若保持当前趋势，预计2030年新发病例将达28,822例（预期PSA检测率14.4%），2040年将达40,478例（预期检测率26.4%）。若2030年起对60-69岁（假设检测率60%）和70-79岁（假设检测率80%）男性实施公共PSA筛查，则预计2030年病例数将达37,503例（预期检测率23.1%），2040年达43,719例（预期检测率29.9%）。预测表明，至2034年前列腺癌发病率将较2020年增长两倍。若仅针对60-79岁人群开展全国性筛查，预计到2040年病例检出量将提升近三倍。

原文链接：

The Short- and Long-Term Anticipation of Prostate Cancer Incidence in Korea: Based on Social Aging Trends and Prostate-Specific Antigen Testing Rate during the Last Decade